How much of the chance is Vietnam advancing to the World Cup 2022?
With only 4 matches away, Vietnam will advance to the third qualifying round of the 2022 World Cup in Asia.
Vietnam must only play 3 matches to decide its fate. Park Hang Seo's side is facing a great opportunity of history if they win the right to the final qualifier, the meeting place of the Asian giants.
At that time, Vietnam is at the top of the table, Malaysia, Thailand and the UAE were 2.3 and 5 points respectively, Indonesia no longer participated in the race to win tickets when it was officially eliminated. Theoretically, chances are equally divided among all teams. Although the UAE has only 6 points, there are still 4 matches left.
In this article, we will take into account the high probability (meaning that the stronger team will win 3 points).
In the next series, Thailand will face Indonesia and the UAE face Malaysia at home. Regarding force, Thailand and the UAE almost secured 3 points. So after the match on October 8, Thailand will be equal to Vietnam, the UAE is 2 points behind Vietnam.
However, Vietnam will come as a guest on Malaysia soild, UAE to Indonesia on Oct 13. Indonesia is too weak to defeat UAE.
In this case, the UAE will win 3 points and Vietnam should try to win at least 1 point at Bukit Jalil has never been easy. So after the match on 13/10, UAE is equal to Vietnam.
At that time, the situation of the rankings will be Vietnam 12 points, UAE 12 points, Thailand 11 points and Malaysia 10 points. Returning to My Dinh home ground in the series of matches on November 12, Vietnam welcomes Indonesia at home. 3 points is what Park Hang Seo must win. At that time, Thailand and the UAE will fight in Western Asia. Regardless of whether these two teams win, it will be the pressure on Vietnam in the final round.
In the last round, Vietnam confronted the UAE directly, while Thailand meets Malaysia at home. The most favorable result should be a draw of the UAE and Thailand, then in the last match, Vietnam and the UAE away match is almost certainly holding the top spot.
And if the UAE wins Thailand, Vietnam must draw UAE and hope the goal difference is good to win first place. If the winning team is Thailand in the previous turn, the task of Vietnam is more difficult, because then Malaysia is eliminated so it is very likely that the case of lack of motivation and let Thailand win the final match.
Despite performing very well in previous matches in 2019, the road to the final qualifier with Vietnam is still very arduous. Only 3 more matches, Vietnam needs to have every score, every opportunity and, importantly, luck. With a relatively close score, the team that optimizes the score opens the door further. The goal difference will determine the position in the case of equal points.